This winter, fine dust levels are expected to be thicker than last year’s, but similar to or lower than the average year.

Concerns Over Domestic and International Fine Dust Stagnation Due to High-Pressure Influence
Second Fine Dust Management Plan Confirmed… Aim to Lower Annual Concentration to OECD Median by 2029

Seoul Covered in Fine Dust. [Yonhap News File Photo]

(Seoul=Yonhap News) Reporter Lee Jae-young – This winter’s fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels are expected to be higher than last year but similar to or lower than the average of the past nine years.

On the 27th, the government held the 14th Special Fine Dust Countermeasure Committee led by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo at the Government Complex Seoul and confirmed the ‘Second Comprehensive Fine Dust Management Plan’ and the ‘Sixth Seasonal Fine Dust Management Plan.’

Additionally, the National Institute of Environmental Research released its forecast for the average PM2.5 concentration for this winter.

The Institute indicated that the probability of PM2.5 concentrations this winter (from December to February next year) being higher than last year is 50%, with a 30% chance of being similar and a 20% chance of being lower.

In terms of concentration, ‘higher than last year’ means ’23㎍/㎥ or higher.’ ‘Similar’ means between ‘18.9㎍/㎥ and 23.1㎍/㎥,’ and ‘lower’ means ‘18.8㎍/㎥ or less.’

When compared to the average of the past nine years, the probability of this winter’s PM2.5 levels being similar and lower are each 40%, while the probability of being higher is 20%.

‘Similar to average’ indicates concentrations between ‘24.9㎍/㎥ and 28.0㎍/㎥,’ lower means ‘24.8㎍ or less,’ and higher means ‘28.1㎍/㎥ or more.’

The probability of the nationwide daily average PM2.5 concentration exceeding ’35㎍/㎥,’ classified as ‘bad or worse’ days, being more than last year (14.4 days or more) is 40%, similar probability (11.7 to 14.3 days) is also 40%, and the probability of being less (11.6 days or less) is 20%.

Compared to the average, the probabilities of fewer days (16.5 days or less) and a similar number of days (16.6 to 22.1 days) are each 40%, while the likelihood of more days (22.2 days or more) is 20%.

The Institute cited the higher-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean, and less than average snow cover in Tibet as main reasons for predicting high-pressure systems to develop frequently over Korea this winter.

High-pressure conditions can lead to atmospheric stagnation, trapping fine dust generated domestically and imported from abroad in the air.

However, frequent inflows of clean cold air from the north could lower fine dust levels. Potentially influencing this are the weak emergence of La Niña, the reduction of Arctic sea ice, and increased snow cover in Eurasia.

The forecast of worse fine dust conditions than last year also includes the influence of a ‘base effect.’

Last winter saw record precipitation and frequent rain, along with prevailing southerly winds, leading to historically low PM2.5 levels.

The ‘Second Comprehensive Fine Dust Management Plan’ confirmed by the government aims to reduce the national annual average PM2.5 concentration to 13㎍/㎥ by 2029. This is a more than 27% reduction from 2021’s average (18㎍/㎥).

Lowering the annual average concentration to 13㎍/㎥ would place Korea’s levels in the middle range among OECD countries, according to the government.

Following the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply, measures will be taken to gradually shut down or convert elderly coal power plants into ‘carbon-free fuel co-fired power plants.’ Co-firing with carbon-free fuels involves using a mix of fuels like ammonia with coal and hydrogen with liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The total emission allowances for air pollutants that can be emitted by facilities within air management zones will also be reduced. These facilities account for 82% of the nation’s total emissions.

Additionally, by 2030, the government plans to introduce 528 eco-friendly ships running on LNG and hydrogen, and increase the cumulative number of zero-emission vehicles to 4.5 million.

The Sixth Seasonal Fine Dust Management Plan, which will be implemented from December 1 to March 31 next year, aims to reduce primary fine particulate matter and nitrogen oxides by 112,000 tons compared to the winter of 2018/2019, before the first seasonal management plan was implemented. This is a 2.8% higher reduction target than the fifth seasonal management plan.

Through the sixth management plan, the government anticipates an effect of reducing the average PM2.5 concentration by 1.2㎍/㎥.

During this period, 15 public sector coal power units will be halted, and up to 46 units will have their output restricted to 80%.

The restriction on driving Grade 5 emission vehicles will continue in the metropolitan area and six designated cities, and precision inspections for diesel vehicle nitrogen oxides will expand from the metropolitan area to air management zones (involving five provinces and 77 districts).

Under the sixth plan, 407 businesses known for high fine dust emissions will take measures to reduce emissions. Compared to the fifth plan, more businesses volunteered to reduce emissions, and additional mandatory reductions will be enforced.

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