According to a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on November 3rd, citing an unnamed Iranian government official, Iran has scheduled its retaliatory attack against Israel for after the U.S. presidential election. The WSJ noted that it is still uncertain whether this announcement is genuine or merely a bluff. The source indicated that Iran does not wish for its planned attack to influence the U.S. election.
The WSJ also reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran favors the election of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over Republican candidate Donald Trump. Israel had previously conducted airstrikes on key Iranian military-industrial facilities on October 26th, to which Iran has vowed to retaliate.
An Egyptian government official disclosed that Iran has privately indicated that its response to Israel will be “strong and complex.” An Iranian government source stated that because Iranian military personnel were lost, a response is necessary, suggesting that operations might utilize Iraqi territory and target Israeli military facilities with greater intensity than previous attacks on November 1st.
According to Iranian and Egyptian officials, Iran plans to diversify its attack methods beyond missiles and drones this time, potentially employing missiles with more powerful warheads. In its previous attack on November 1st, Iran reportedly used four types of medium-range ballistic missiles, including the latest models, Kheibar Shekan and Fatah.
Iran has informed Arab diplomats that the regular military forces will participate in the upcoming retaliatory strike alongside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which usually handles Israel-related security issues. However, WSJ asserted that it’s still unknown if Iran’s threats are serious or merely posturing.
Iran’s strategic air defense network was reportedly decimated during the October 26th Israeli airstrikes, significantly weakening its response capabilities. If Iran proceeds with its retaliatory attack, Israel is expected to respond, with the nature of its response depending on the scale, nature, and effectiveness of the Iranian attack. Israeli officials have stated that while Israel has refrained from targeting Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, which are crucial for its economy and security, this approach might change.
Following the Israeli airstrikes on October 26th, Iranian officials initially assured other Middle Eastern countries that they would not launch a retaliatory attack, but reportedly shifted their stance within a few days. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned that if Iran attacks Israel or the U.S., there would be “severe consequences.” She emphasized that the direct exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, such as the recent Israeli airstrike on October 26th, should be the last.