With just three days remaining until Japan’s general election, local media are analyzing the possibility that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may not secure even 200 seats. According to the Mainichi Shimbun, public opinion polls conducted on the 22nd and 23rd, combined with their own investigation, suggest that the LDP and their coalition partner, the Komeito party, are in a precarious position to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives.
The paper particularly highlighted that the LDP is facing strong headwinds due to a factional slush fund scandal, making it increasingly difficult for them to achieve a single-party majority of 233 seats, with the possibility their count could fall below 200. The estimated number of seats the LDP could secure ranged from 171 to 225, a significant decrease from the 256 seats they held before the election was called.
Areas where the LDP is likely to perform well include Yamagata, Tottori, Kochi, and Kumamoto prefectures. The Komeito party is estimated to win between 23 and 29 seats, casting doubt on their ability to match the 32 seats held before the election officially kicked off.
Meanwhile, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to increase its seat count significantly, estimated to rise from 98 to between 126 and 177 seats, especially showing strength in regions like Hokkaido, Miyagi, Fukushima, Niigata, and Saga prefectures. The paper also noted that the party’s proportional representation seats are set to increase from the existing 39.
Japanese private broadcaster TBS’s JNN network also echoed these findings, reporting that the LDP might see its seats drastically reduced, possibly losing the combined LDP-Komeito majority. JNN further highlighted that about 15 of the 46 LDP candidates linked to the slush fund issues are in a strong position, though around 20 are struggling and 10 are in tight races.
Both Mainichi and JNN noted that the factional slush fund issue has severely impacted the LDP beyond initial expectations. A former LDP lawmaker interviewed criticized the disconnect with voters, pointing out the stagnant real wages despite rising prices, compounded by the slush fund scandal impacting their election campaign.
However, the situation remains fluid with around 40% of voters yet to decide on their choice, according to JNN, and Mainichi observed a similar uncertainty in single-seat constituencies, indicating that shifts in voter sentiment could still occur. The 50th House of Representatives election, with a total of 465 seats at stake, will be conducted on the 27th of this month.