“LDP May Not Secure 200 Seats Either”
Impact of Slush Fund Scandal and High Inflation
In Japan, where the general election will be held on the 27th of this month, a public opinion poll suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is not only unlikely to secure a majority of seats but that the overall prospects for the ruling coalition to achieve a majority are also uncertain.
On the 21st, Asahi Shimbun reported on a nationwide poll conducted from the 19th to the 20th via phone and internet. The poll surveyed about 360,000 eligible voters and suggested that the LDP’s seats in the House of Representatives are likely to decrease by over 50 from the current 247 seats, falling short of a majority (233 seats or more). In the election, a total of 465 members will be elected, combining 289 district representatives and 176 proportional representatives. If the LDP fails to secure a majority on its own, it would be the first time since the 2012 House of Representatives election, when it regained power, that it has fallen below a majority. The coalition partner Komeito’s seats, currently at 32, are expected to drop below 30.
The opposition’s seats are expected to increase significantly. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is projected to grow from 98 to 140 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People is expected to increase from seven seats to around 20. The Communist Party is likely to earn more than its current 10 seats.
Shigeru Ishiba, the president of the LDP, aims to achieve a majority in the election through the coalition with Komeito. Prime Minister Ishiba, who took office on the 1st of this month, dissolved the House of Representatives to gain momentum for the new cabinet’s policy initiatives and decided to hold a snap general election on the 27th. However, the LDP is struggling due to the lingering “slush fund scandal” and persistent high inflation, leading to increasing public dissatisfaction. Kyodo News reported that Prime Minister Ishiba expressed a sense of crisis regarding the sluggish support for the LDP and Komeito.
Support for the Ishiba Cabinet is low compared to previous cabinets upon their initial launch. According to the Asahi Shimbun survey, only 33% of respondents supported the Ishiba Cabinet, compared to 39% who did not support it, indicating it’s 6 percentage points lower. This is significantly lower than the 42% support rate for Fumio Kishida’s cabinet during the 2021 House of Representatives election.